Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminum and copper prices Commodity Markets OutlookA World Bank Report OCTOBER 2022 AprApr OctOctOCTOBER 2022 Commodity Markets Outlook © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and De velopment / World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.or g Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Ba nk with external contributions. The findings, inter pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessari ly reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board o f Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The W orld Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, complete ness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assu me responsibility for any errors, omissions, or dis crepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use o f or failure to use the information, methods, proce sses, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and o ther information shown on any map in this work do n ot imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning t he legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are spec ifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons A ttribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Und er the Creative Commons Attribution license, you ar e free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, includin g for commercial purposes, under the following cond itions: Attribution —Please cite the work as follows: World Bank Group. 2022. Commodity Markets Outlook: Pandemic, war, recession: Drivers of aluminum and copper prices, O ctober 2022 . World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations —If you create a translation of this work, please ad d the following disclaimer along with the attributi on: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or e rror in this translation. Adaptations —If you create an adaptation of this work, please ad d the following disclaimer along with the attributi on: This is an adaptation of an original work by The Wo rld Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adapt ation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adap tation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content —The World Bank does not necessarily own each compon ent of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant tha t the use of any third-party-owned individual compo nent or part contained in the work will not infringe on the righ ts of those third parties. The risk of claims resul ting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsi bility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Exampl es of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figure s, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addres sed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Grou p, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubri [email protected]. The cutoff date for the data used in this report wa s October 21, 2022. iii Table of Contents Figures Acknowledgments ................................... ................................................... ................................. v Executive Summary ................................. ................................................... ................................. 1 Special Focus Pandemic