论文标题
全球最小差异投资组合的聚类方法
Clustering Approaches for Global Minimum Variance Portfolio
论文作者
论文摘要
获得全球最低差异投资组合(GMVP)投资组合权重的唯一输入是考虑投资的资产回报率的协方差矩阵。由于尚不清楚人口协方差矩阵,因此投资者使用历史数据来估计它。即使样本协方差矩阵是对种群协方差矩阵的无偏估计量,但它包含大量估计误差,尤其是当观察到的数据数量不超过资产数量时。由于很难一次估算具有高维度的协方差矩阵,因此提议聚类库存以两个步骤提出协方差矩阵:首先,在集群中,其次在群集之间。它通过减少数据矩阵中的特征数量来减少估计误差。本文的动机是,即使在聚集后,估计误差仍然可以保持很高,如果将大量股票聚集在一起。这项研究建议利用有限的聚类方法来限制最大簇大小。实验的结果表明,不仅样品中的波动率和样本外波动率之间的差距降低,而且样本外的挥发性也会降低。这意味着我们需要一种有限的聚类算法,以便可以精确控制最大的聚类大小以找到最佳的投资组合性能。
The only input to attain the portfolio weights of global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) is the covariance matrix of returns of assets being considered for investment. Since the population covariance matrix is not known, investors use historical data to estimate it. Even though sample covariance matrix is an unbiased estimator of the population covariance matrix, it includes a great amount of estimation error especially when the number of observed data is not much bigger than number of assets. As it is difficult to estimate the covariance matrix with high dimensionality all at once, clustering stocks is proposed to come up with covariance matrix in two steps: firstly, within a cluster and secondly, between clusters. It decreases the estimation error by reducing the number of features in the data matrix. The motivation of this dissertation is that the estimation error can still remain high even after clustering, if a large amount of stocks is clustered together in a single group. This research proposes to utilize a bounded clustering method in order to limit the maximum cluster size. The result of experiments shows that not only the gap between in-sample volatility and out-of-sample volatility decreases, but also the out-of-sample volatility gets reduced. It implies that we need a bounded clustering algorithm so that maximum clustering size can be precisely controlled to find the best portfolio performance.