论文标题
抗生素，传染性持续时间和疾病的传播
Antibiotics, duration of infectiousness, and transmission of disease
论文作者
论文摘要
人类，家畜，果园作物和观赏植物通常会因细菌感染而接受抗生素治疗。通过治愈感染性个体，抗生素疗法可能会限制传染性疾病在宿主之间的传播。 But antibiotic suppression of within-host pathogen density might also reduce the probability that the host is otherwise removed from infectious status before recovery. When rates of both recovery and removal (isolation or mortality) depend directly on within-host density, antibiotic therapy can relax the removal rate and so increase between-host disease transmission. In this paper a deterministic within-host dynamics drives the infectious host's probability of infection transmission, as well as the host's time-dependent probability of surviving to recovery. The model varies (1) inoculum size, (2) the time elapsing between infection and initiation of therapy, (2) antibiotic efficacy, and (3) the size/susceptibility of groups encountered by an infectious host. Results identify conditions where antibiotic treatment simultaneously increases host survival and increases the expected number of new infections.也就是说，抗生素可能会将一种罕见的严重细菌疾病转化为一种常见但可治疗的感染。
Humans, domestic animals, orchard crops, and ornamental plants are commonly treated with antibiotics in response to bacterial infection. By curing infectious individuals, antibiotic therapy might limit the spread of contagious disease among hosts. But antibiotic suppression of within-host pathogen density might also reduce the probability that the host is otherwise removed from infectious status before recovery. When rates of both recovery and removal (isolation or mortality) depend directly on within-host density, antibiotic therapy can relax the removal rate and so increase between-host disease transmission. In this paper a deterministic within-host dynamics drives the infectious host's probability of infection transmission, as well as the host's time-dependent probability of surviving to recovery. The model varies (1) inoculum size, (2) the time elapsing between infection and initiation of therapy, (2) antibiotic efficacy, and (3) the size/susceptibility of groups encountered by an infectious host. Results identify conditions where antibiotic treatment simultaneously increases host survival and increases the expected number of new infections. That is, antibiotics might convert a rare, serious bacterial disease into a common, but treatable infection.
