论文标题

面向利润的销售预测:从业务角度对预测技术进行比较

Profit-oriented sales forecasting: a comparison of forecasting techniques from a business perspective

论文作者

Van Calster, Tine, Bossche, Filip Van den, Baesens, Bart, Lemahieu, Wilfried

论文摘要

选择最好的预测数据的技术是在任何预测应用程序中都会出现的问题。数十年的研究导致了源于统计,计量经济学和机器学习(ML)的大量预测方法,这导致了在任何预测练习中都非常困难而精心的选择。本文旨在通过比较35次系列的大量技术,包括可口可乐公司的行业数据和公开可用的数据集,以促进这一过程进行高级战术销售预测。但是,本文不仅关注由此产生的预测的准确性,而是引入了一种新颖且完全自动化的利润驱动的方法,该方法考虑了一种技术在模型构建和评估过程中可以创造的预期利润。用于此目的的预期利润功能,可以通过将预测准确性与业务专业知识相结合,易于理解和适应任何情况。此外,我们研究了ML技术的附加值,外部因素的包含以及季节性模型的使用,以确定哪种模型在战术销售预测中最有效。我们的发现表明,简单的季节性时间序列模型始终超过其他方法,并且利润驱动的方法可以导致选择不同的预测模型。

Choosing the technique that is the best at forecasting your data, is a problem that arises in any forecasting application. Decades of research have resulted into an enormous amount of forecasting methods that stem from statistics, econometrics and machine learning (ML), which leads to a very difficult and elaborate choice to make in any forecasting exercise. This paper aims to facilitate this process for high-level tactical sales forecasts by comparing a large array of techniques for 35 times series that consist of both industry data from the Coca-Cola Company and publicly available datasets. However, instead of solely focusing on the accuracy of the resulting forecasts, this paper introduces a novel and completely automated profit-driven approach that takes into account the expected profit that a technique can create during both the model building and evaluation process. The expected profit function that is used for this purpose, is easy to understand and adaptable to any situation by combining forecasting accuracy with business expertise. Furthermore, we examine the added value of ML techniques, the inclusion of external factors and the use of seasonal models in order to ascertain which type of model works best in tactical sales forecasting. Our findings show that simple seasonal time series models consistently outperform other methodologies and that the profit-driven approach can lead to selecting a different forecasting model.

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