论文标题
带有外部源的时间延迟动态系统，用于2019-NCOV的本地爆发
A Time Delay Dynamic System with External Source for the Local Outbreak of 2019-nCoV
论文作者
论文摘要
如何建模2019年冠状病毒（2019-NCOV）在中国传播是应用数学中最紧急，最有趣的问题之一。在本文中，我们提出了一个具有外部来源的新型时间延迟动态系统，以描述2019-NCOV的局部爆发趋势。外部来源是在新提出的动态系统中引入的，该系统可被认为是可疑的人前往不同地区的。数值模拟显示出具有外部源的动态系统比没有它的动态系统更可靠，并且隔离率对于控制2019-NCOV的累积确认人员的增加非常重要。基于我们使用公共数据的数值仿真结果，我们建议地方政府应采取更严格的措施来维持隔离率。否则，2019-NCOV的当地累积确认人可能会失控。
How to model the 2019 CoronaVirus (2019-nCov) spread in China is one of the most urgent and interesting problems in applied mathematics. In this paper, we propose a novel time delay dynamic system with external source to describe the trend of local outbreak for the 2019-nCoV. The external source is introduced in the newly proposed dynamic system, which can be considered as the suspected people travel to different areas. The numerical simulations exhibit the dynamic system with the external source is more reliable than the one without it, and the rate of isolation is extremely important for controlling the increase of cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV. Based on our numerical simulation results with the public data, we suggest that the local government should have some more strict measures to maintain the rate of isolation. Otherwise the local cumulative confirmed people of 2019-nCoV might be out of control.
