论文标题
霍普夫分叉从新凯尼西亚泰勒统治到拉姆齐的最佳政策
Hopf Bifurcation from new-Keynesian Taylor rule to Ramsey Optimal Policy
论文作者
论文摘要
本文比较了在新英国环境中货币政策的不同实施。我们可以证明，从短期承诺（基于负面反馈机制）下从拉姆齐的最佳政策转变为泰勒规则（基于积极的反馈机制），对应于带有相反策略建议和动态属性的HOPF分叉。这种分叉之所以发生，是由于临时假设是，当策略目标（通货膨胀和输出差距）是新英国理论中的前瞻变量时，利率是前瞻性变量。
This paper compares different implementations of monetary policy in a new-Keynesian setting. We can show that a shift from Ramsey optimal policy under short-term commitment (based on a negative feedback mechanism) to a Taylor rule (based on a positive feedback mechanism) corresponds to a Hopf bifurcation with opposite policy advice and a change of the dynamic properties. This bifurcation occurs because of the ad hoc assumption that interest rate is a forward-looking variable when policy targets (inflation and output gap) are forward-looking variables in the new-Keynesian theory.
