论文标题
通过使用动态编程的选择性推理来计算有效的p值,以实现最佳更改点
Computing Valid p-value for Optimal Changepoint by Selective Inference using Dynamic Programming
论文作者
论文摘要
与检测变更点(CP)的方法有关的文献大量文献。但是,对评估检测到的CP的统计可靠性的关注减少了。在本文中,我们介绍了一种新的方法来对CPS的重要性进行统计推断,该方法是由基于动态编程(DP)的最佳CP检测算法估算的。基于选择性推理(SI)框架,我们提出了一种精确的(非反应)方法来计算有效的P值来测试CP的重要性。尽管众所周知,由于过度调节,SI具有较低的统计能力,但我们通过引入参数编程技术解决了这一缺点。然后,我们提出了一种有效的方法,以最小的调理量进行SI,从而导致高统计能力。我们对合成数据集进行了实验,通过该实验,我们提供的证据表明,我们所提出的方法比现有方法更强大,在计算效率方面具有不错的性能,并在许多实际应用中提供了良好的结果。
There is a vast body of literature related to methods for detecting changepoints (CP). However, less attention has been paid to assessing the statistical reliability of the detected CPs. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to perform statistical inference on the significance of the CPs, estimated by a Dynamic Programming (DP)-based optimal CP detection algorithm. Based on the selective inference (SI) framework, we propose an exact (non-asymptotic) approach to compute valid p-values for testing the significance of the CPs. Although it is well-known that SI has low statistical power because of over-conditioning, we address this disadvantage by introducing parametric programming techniques. Then, we propose an efficient method to conduct SI with the minimum amount of conditioning, leading to high statistical power. We conduct experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, through which we offer evidence that our proposed method is more powerful than existing methods, has decent performance in terms of computational efficiency, and provides good results in many practical applications.