论文标题
COVID-19的本地爆发的分数TDD的重建和预测算法
The Reconstruction and Prediction Algorithm of the Fractional TDD for the Local Outbreak of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
从2019年12月下旬开始，小说的电晕病毒开始在中国大陆蔓延。为了预测电晕病毒扩散的趋势，提出了几个时间延迟动态系统（TDD）。在本文中，我们建立了一个新颖的分数时间延迟动态系统（FTDD），以描述Covid-19的局部爆发。引入了分数衍生物，以说明已确认和治愈人民生长的子扩散过程。根据政府的公共卫生数据，我们提出了系数的稳定重建算法。重建的系数用于预测电晕病毒的趋势。数值结果与公共数据非常吻合。
From late December, 2019, the novel Corona-Virus began to spread in the mainland of China. For predicting the trend of the Corona Virus spread, several time delay dynamic systems (TDD) are proposed. In this paper, we establish a novel fractional time delay dynamic system (FTDD) to describe the local outbreak of COVID-19. The fractional derivative is introduced to account for the sub-diffusion process of the confirmed and cured peoples growth. Based on the public health data by the government, we propose a stable reconstruction algorithm of the coefficients. The reconstructed coefficients are used to predict the trend of the Corona-Virus. The numerical results are in good agreement with the public data.
