论文标题
病原体感染恢复概率（PIRP）与促炎性抗病原样（PIAP）水平：建模和治疗策略
Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) Versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) Levels: Modelling and Therapeutic Strategies
论文作者
论文摘要
目前的Covid-19大流行正在全球范围内迅速传播，如果失控，它可能成为现代历史上最大的大流行事件之一。看来大多数SARS-COV2病毒感染导致死亡，主要是由于肺部功能障碍或可能归因于宿主的多个器官的失败引起的，特别是宿主的免疫功能，特别是高炎性型疾病。在这项简要综述和研究中，提出了一种数学模型，以将病原体感染恢复概率（PIRP）与宿主单元内的促炎性抗病原体物种（PIARP）相关联，当PIAPS等于PIAPS等于病原体消除或清除率的PIAPE平衡水平时，在宿主单元中表现出最大PIRP。基于此模型，可以设计和实施正确的阶段或时机（免疫刺激器或免疫抑制剂）的合理或有效治疗策略，并具有正确的剂量，并且可以被设计和实施正确的剂量，这些策略可以有效地实现最大的PIRP或降低死亡率。
Current CoVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly worldwide, and it may become one of the largest pandemic events in modern history if out of control. It appears most of the SARS-CoV2 virus infection resulted deaths are mainly due to dysfunctions or failures of the lung or multiple organs that could be attributed to hosts immunodysfunctions particularly hyperinflammatory type disorders. In this brief review and study, a math model is proposed to correlate the Pathogen Infection Recovery Probability (PIRP) versus Proinflammatory Anti-Pathogen Species (PIAPS) levels within a host unit, where a maximum PIRP is exhibited when the PIAPS levels are equal to or around PIAPS equilibrium levels at the pathogen elimination or clearance onset. Based on this model, rational or effective therapeutic strategies at right stages or timing, with right type of agents (immuno-stimulators or immuno-suppressors), and right dosages, may be designed and implemented that are expected to effectively achieve maximum PIRP or reduce the mortality.
