论文标题
使用以前在韩国用于MERS爆发的改编的SIR模型来预测葡萄牙SARS-COVID-2的演变
Predicting the evolution Of SARS-Covid-2 in Portugal using an adapted SIR Model previously used in South Korea for the MERS outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
新的冠状病毒Covid-19在全球范围内迅速传播，导致世界卫生组织（WHO）宣布了大流行状态。许多政策制定者和政府都在问自己的问题之一是，差异将如何及时发展。在这项研究中，我采用了先前在韩国使用的改编的SIR模型来对MERS爆发进行建模，该爆发也是由冠状病毒引起的，以使用意大利DARA估算活性病例曲线的演变。然后，我为葡萄牙的Covid-19构建了五种不同的方案。在失控的情况下，4月5日（失控的情况）的活性案件数量可能达到约40,000人。如果自我保护和控制的水平与韩国模型所考虑的水平相同，则该数字可以减少到约800例（场景1）。考虑到这种情况现在是不现实的，还设计了另外三种情况。在所有这些情况下，与韩国的措施相比，政府的措施具有50 \％的有效性。但是在方案2中，传输率$β$有效降低到50 \％，在这种情况下，活动案例可能会达到约7,000人。在方案3中，传输率$β$减少到其初始值的70％，其中案例数量将达到约11,000人的峰值。最后，在情况4中，$β$减少到80 \％。在这种情况下，将在约13,000例病例下达到高峰。这项研究表明，通过遵循世界卫生组织和卫生当局的建议，控制和自我保护措施的重要性是降低受影响人员的数量。通过适当的措施，这个数字可以降低到约7,000-13,000人。希望这种情况不仅在葡萄牙，而且在世界其他地方。
The new coronavirus covid-19 has spread very quickly worldwide, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a state of pandemic. One of the questions many policy makers, and governments are asking themselves is how the spread is going to evolve in time. In this study, I applied an adapted SIR model previously used in South Korea to model the MERS outbreak, which is also caused by a coronavirus, to estimate the evolution of the curve of active cases in the case of the Portuguese situation, using Italian dara. I then construct five different scenarios for the evolution of covid-19 in Portugal. In the out of control scenario, the number of active cases could reach as much as ~40,000 people on the 5th of April (out-of-control scenario). If the self-protective and control are taken in the same level as what was considered for the South Korean model, this number could have be reduced to about 800 cases (scenario 1). Considering that this scenario is now unrealistic, three other scenarios were devised. In all these scenarios, the government measures had a 50\% effectiveness when compared to the measures in Korea. But in scenario 2 the transmission rate $β$ was effectively reduced to 50\%, In this scenario active cases could reach circa 7,000 people. In scenario 3, the transmission rate $β$ was reduced to 70\% of its initial value, in which the number of cases would reach a peak of ~11,000 people. And finally in scenario 4, $β$ was reduced to 80\%. In this scenario, the peak would be reached at about ~13,000 cases. This study shows the importance of control and self-protecting measure to bring down the number of affected people by following the recommendations of the WHO and health authorities. With the appropriate measures, this number can be brought down to ~7,000-13,000 people. Hopefully that will be the case not just in Portugal, but in the rest of the World.
