论文标题
使用早期数据估计法国Covid-19的实际感染死亡率（运行标题：COVID-19的感染死亡率）
Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France (Running title: Infection fatality ratio from COVID-19)
论文作者
论文摘要
The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and the mortality rate.In this report, we develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a统计推断方法。该模型的目的不是进行预测，而是要估计法国观察窗口中感染Covid-19的实际人数，并推断出与流行病有关的死亡率。法国受感染病例的实际数量可能远高于观察结果：我们在这里发现了一个因子X 15（95％-CI：4-33），这导致观察期结束时导致5.2/ 1000死亡率（95％-CI：1.5/ 1000-11.7/ 1000）。我们发现R0为4.8，高值可能与长期病毒脱落期为20天有关。
The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and the mortality rate.In this report, we develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The objective of this model is not to make forecasts but to estimate the real number of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation window in France and to deduce the mortality rate associated with the epidemic.Main results. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably much higher than the observations: we find here a factor x 15 (95%-CI: 4-33), which leads to a 5.2/1000 mortality rate (95%-CI: 1.5 / 1000-11.7/ 1000) at the end of the observation period. We find a R0 of 4.8, a high value which may be linked to the long viral shedding period of 20 days.
