论文标题
COVID-19：研究巴西污染演变的模型
COVID-19: A model for studying the evolution of contamination in Brazil
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们介绍了一个流行病学模型，以研究病毒引起的流行病的传播。该模型专门应用于Covid-19，该疾病是由SARS-COV-2病毒（又称“新冠状病毒”）引起的。 SIR（易感 - 传染性 - 恢复）模型被用作研究流行病的演变的基础。然而，我们已经修改了一些模型假设，以便获得没有高估预测的污染的估计。然后将这种扩展模型应用于巴西流行病的最新进展情况。在这方面，有可能获得接近当前数据提供的感染性数量的演变。因此，我们评估疾病传播的未来情况。关于人口易感性，我们考虑了避免传染的隔离措施和预防措施，考虑了不同的社会行为。我们得出的结论是，流行病的未来情况很大程度上取决于迄今为止所采用的社会行为以及传染控制措施。在接下来的几个月中，这种措施的程度可能会导致数千，数百万或数千万的污染。
In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel coronavirus"). The SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered) model is used as a basis for studying the evolution of the epidemic. Nevertheless, we have modified some of the model hypotheses in order to obtain an estimate of the contamination free of overestimated predictions. This extended model is then applied to the case of the recent advance of the epidemic in Brazil. In this regard, it is possible to obtain the evolution for the number of infectious significantly close to that provided by current data. Accordingly, we evaluate possible future scenarios for the disease spread. Regarding the population susceptibility, we consider different social behaviors in response to quarantine measures and precautions to avoid contagion. We conclude that the future scenario of the epidemic depends significantly on the social behavior adopted to date, as well as on the contagion control measures. The extent of such measures would be likely to cause thousands, millions or tens of millions of contaminations in the next few months.
