论文标题
COVID19：除非所有人都采取行动，否则政策可能无效甚至适得其反
Covid19: unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid19的扩散是呼吁政府和公共卫生当局采取限制新感染并包含预期关键案件和死亡人数的干预措施。这些措施中的大多数都依赖于人们的遵守情况，他们被要求将社会接触降至最低。在本说明中，我们认为，如果没有在所有社会群体上强制实施，尤其是在强烈混合模式的特征上，个人对处方和减少社交活动的遵守和减少可能不会有效。实际上，如果那些有很多接触的人比成比例地减少他们的人比那些很少的人少了，那么政策的影响可能会适得其反：这种疾病将需要更多的时间才能死亡，直到可能成为特有的疾病。简而言之，除非所有人都可以采取行动，否则尤其是那些有更多联系的人，政策甚至可能会适得其反。
The diffusion of COVID19 is calling governments and public health authorities to interventions that limit new infections and contain the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people, who are asked to reduce their social contacts to a minimum. In this note we argue that individuals' adherence to prescriptions and reduction of social activity may not be efficacious if not implemented robustly on all social groups, especially on those characterized by intense mixing patterns. Actually, it is possible that, if those who have many contacts reduce them proportionally less than those who have few, then the effect of a policy could backfire: the disease would take more time to die out, up to the point that it could become endemic. In a nutshell, unless one gets everyone to act, and specifically those who have more contacts, a policy may even be counterproductive.
