论文标题

加纳的SARS-COV 2的预计缓解和抑制策略干预措施的数据驱动建模

Data Driven Modeling of Projected Mitigation and Suppressing Strategy Interventions for SARS-COV 2 in Ghana

论文作者

Nimako-Aidoo, Emmanuel de-Graft Johnson Owusu-Ansah Atinuke O. Adebanji Eric

论文摘要

在呼吸道疾病的大流行中,非药物干预措施的呼吁成为传染病和公共卫生专家的最高优先事项,而疫苗或医疗干预的竞赛正在进行中。个人可以改变自己的行为,并采取预防措施,以减少遵守政府官员和专家呼吁的感染风险。结果,初步和最终传输速率之间的关系变得虚弱。这项研究评估了Covid-19的公共卫生专家提出的行为变化(缓解和抑制措施),这改变了人类行为及其日常生活。缓解和抑制作用的动态措施减少了公民之间的接触,并严重干扰了他们的身体和社会行为。结果表明,所有措施对传输率下降都有重大影响。但是,缓解措施可能会延长消除传播,这可能会导致严重的经济崩溃,但是,如果以极端方式遵守,则措施的结合表明,有可能在30天内植根传播。结果表明,加纳感染的高峰期范围从第64天到感染时间的第74天。

In the midst of pandemic for respiratory illness, the call for non-pharmaceutical interventions become the highest priority for infectious disease and public health experts, while the race towards vaccine or medical intervention are ongoing. Individuals may modify their behavior and take preventative steps to reduce infection risk in the bid to adhere to the call by government officials and experts. As a result, the existence of relationship between the preliminary and the final transmission rates become feeble. This study evaluates the behavioral changes (mitigation and suppression measures) proposed by public health experts for COVID-19 which had altered human behavior and their day to day lives. The dynamics underlying the mitigation and suppression measures reduces the contacts among citizens and significantly interfere with their physical and social behavior. The results show all the measures have a significant impact on the decline of transmission rate. However, the mitigation measures might prolong the elimination of the transmission which might lead to a severe economic meltdown, yet, a combination of the measures show a possibility of rooting out transmission within 30 days if adhered to in an extreme manner. The result shows a peak period of infection for Ghana ranges from 64th day to 74th day of infection time period.

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