论文标题
电网频率的可预测性
Predictability of Power Grid Frequency
论文作者
论文摘要
电网频率是电源系统控制中可观察到的中心，因为它可以测量电源和需求的平衡。可靠的频率预测可以促进快速控制动作，因此可能会大大改善电源系统的稳定性。在这里，我们开发了一个加权北端（WNN）预测器，以研究频率轨迹的可预测性。我们最多一小时的预测比平均每日概况更为精确，并且可以提高频率控制动作的效率。此外，通过解释最佳预测参数（最近的邻居的数量，预测范围等），我们就对不同同步区域的特定特性获得了更多的了解。最后，预测错误表明出现了特殊的外部扰动。总体而言，我们提供了一个诊断工具和功率电网频率时间序列的准确预测指标，从而可以更好地理解基础动态。
The power grid frequency is the central observable in power system control, as it measures the balance of electrical supply and demand. A reliable frequency forecast can facilitate rapid control actions and may thus greatly improve power system stability. Here, we develop a weighted-nearest-neighbor (WNN) predictor to investigate how predictable the frequency trajectories are. Our forecasts for up to one hour are more precise than averaged daily profiles and could increase the efficiency of frequency control actions. Furthermore, we gain an increased understanding of the specific properties of different synchronous areas by interpreting the optimal prediction parameters (number of nearest neighbors, the prediction horizon, etc.) in terms of the physical system. Finally, prediction errors indicate the occurrence of exceptional external perturbations. Overall, we provide a diagnostics tool and an accurate predictor of the power grid frequency time series, allowing better understanding of the underlying dynamics.
