论文标题
西班牙和Nederland趋势的比较：冠状病毒传播的动态隔室模型
The comparison of trends in Spain and the Nederland: a Dynamical compartment model of the transmission of Coronavirus
论文作者
论文摘要
冠状病毒最近的传播使许多国家施加限制，以控制其对公民的危险影响。我们开发了一个基于隔室SIR系统的理论动力学模型，并从流网络和马尔可夫链框架中采取了其他调整，以根据公开数据来说明发展和趋势。基于此模型，R中的代码是由来自西班牙授权政府网站和Nederlands的授权政府网站的公开数据编写和喂养的，以比较趋势。我们的结果表明，在这两个国家，感染的“高峰”已经在我们身后，但也表明存在着传播反弹的危险。显然，采取的措施正在给出结果，但是由于大多数人口仍然没有免疫力，我们应该对不久的将来的做法和发展保持危险。
The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment taken from Flow network and Markov chain frameworks to illustrate developments and trends based on publicly available data. Based on this Model, code in R was written and fed by stamped publicly available data from authorized governmental websites in Spain and in the Nederlands, to compare trends. Our results show that the 'peak' of infection is already behind us in both countries, but also demonstrate that there is a danger of rebound of a spread. It is obvious that measures imposed are giving the results, but we should be precarious of near future practices and developments since the majority of population will still be without immunity.
