论文标题

用于分析COVID-19传播的TVBG-SEIR样条模型,以及用于预测场景的工具

The TVBG-SEIR spline model for analysis of COVID-19 spread, and a Tool for prediction scenarios

论文作者

Kounchev, Ognyan, Simeonov, Georgi, Kuncheva, Zhana

论文摘要

传统上,数学模型用于分析流行病的长期全球演变,以确定爆发的潜在和严重性,并提供关键信息以识别疾病干预措施和强度的类型。流行病长期扩散的广泛使用的数学模型之一是所谓的确定性隔室模型(SIR/SEIR类型模型)。应用此类模型的主要目的之一是评估当局(家庭和社会隔离/隔离,旅行限制等)采取的昂贵限制措施如何有效地减少疾病的控制繁殖数量及其传播风险。然而,经典的SIR/SEIR模型主要在可能的固定情况下进行了研究,在此情况下,主要参数,传输速率β(反映感染者传播的病毒传播)和删除的速率伽玛(反映住院/隔离度量)在整个利息期间保持恒定。因此,重要的是要通过为传输速率beta(t)的动态创建新的ansatzes(我们将进一步称为beta)并删除速率伽玛(t)(我们将进一步称为伽玛)来扩展经典的SIR/SEIR模型。本研究的主要目的是引入具有时变β和伽马参数的基于样条的SEIR模型,或缩写的TVBG-SEIR模型,该模型用于估计公共卫生干预和度量的实际含义。我们设计了一个基于TVBG-SEIR模型的工具,该工具可以用作决策支持工具,以帮助卫生决策和决策者创建预测性场景。

Mathematical models are traditionally used to analyze the long-term global evolution of epidemics, to determine the potential and severity of an outbreak, and to provide critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity. One of the widely used mathematical models of long-term spreading of epidemics are the so-called deterministic compartmental models (SIR/SEIR type models). One of the main purposes of applying such models is to assess how the expensive restriction measures imposed by the authorities (home and social isolation/quarantine, travel restrictions, etc.) can effectively reduce the control reproduction number of the disease and its transmission risk. However the classical SIR/SEIR models have been primarily studied in what may be called stationary case, where the main parameters, the Transmission rate Beta (reflecting the virus spread by infected individuals) and the Removed rate Gamma (reflecting the hospitalization/isolation measures) remain constant during the whole period of interest. Hence, it is important to extend the classical SIR/SEIR models by creating new ansatzes for the dynamics of the transmission rates Beta(t) (which we will call further just Beta) and removed rates Gamma(t) (which we will call further just Gamma). The main purpose of the present research is to introduce a spline-based SEIR model with Time-varying Beta and Gamma parameters, or abbreviated TVBG-SEIR model, which is used to estimate the practical implications of the public health interventions and measures. We have designed a Tool based on the TVBG-SEIR model, which may be used as a Decision Support Tool to assist the health decision- and policy-makers in creating predictive scenarios.

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