论文标题
在2020年3月至2020年5月的COVID-19大流行期间，英格兰和威尔士的登记死亡人数过多
Excess registered deaths in England and Wales during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to May 2020
论文作者
论文摘要
官方对Covid-19死亡的官方罪名受到批评，包括可能包括未死于Covid-19的人，而只是死于Covid-19。我通过将广义添加剂模型适合于2010年代在英格兰和威尔士注册的所有死亡人数的每周罪名，以解决这一批评。该模型产生了预期的死亡登记率，而无需1900年大流行，并将这些基准者与最近的注册死亡人数进行了比较，暴露于2020年3月下旬的过剩死亡的出现。到4月底，英格兰和威尔士注册了45,300美元$ \ pm PM 3200 $ 3200的成年人年龄45岁以上。到5月22日，可用的全死数据的最后一天，56,600美元$ \ pm $ 4400已注册（大约53％的男人）。 ONS相应的43,205份死亡证明，提到Covid-19，以及卫生与社会护理部的33,671人死亡人数，这一点明显较少，这意味着他们的计数方法被低估了，而不是被高估了，这是大流行的真实死亡人数。如果在五月期间报告率稳定，则可能在5月底之前注册了约59,000名直接和间接的COVID死亡人数，但尚未全面报告。
Official counts of COVID-19 deaths have been criticized for potentially including people who did not die of COVID-19 but merely died with COVID-19. I address that critique by fitting a generalized additive model to weekly counts of all deaths registered in England and Wales during the 2010s. The model produces baseline rates of death registrations expected without the COVID-19 pandemic, and comparing those baselines to recent counts of registered deaths exposes the emergence of excess deaths late in March 2020. By April's end, England and Wales registered 45,300 $\pm$ 3200 excess deaths of adults aged 45+. Through 22 May, the last day of available all-deaths data, 56,600 $\pm$ 4400 were registered (about 53% of which were of men). Both the ONS's corresponding count of 43,205 death certificates which mention COVID-19, and the Department of Health and Social Care's count of 33,671 deaths, are appreciably less, implying that their counting methods have underestimated, not overestimated, the pandemic's true death toll. If underreporting rates have held steady during May, about 59,000 direct and indirect COVID-19 deaths might have been registered through the end of May but not yet publicly reported in full.
