论文标题
调查高速公路后端崩溃率与宏观建模的反应时间之间的关系
Investigating the Relationship between Freeway Rear-end Crash Rates and Macroscopically Modelled Reaction Time
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究探讨了以下假设：基于宏观Gazis，Herman和Rothery（GHR）模型的分析得出的驱动器反应时间的分析估计值可以作为交通振荡对后端崩溃的影响的有效指标。如果单独的GHR模型不合时宜地适合未经食和拥挤的政权，则也可以估计这两个方案之间所需的反应时间的局部下降。这项研究评估了高速公路后端崩溃率与驾驶员反应时间下降之间的关系。 从一年内收集的28个传感器的流量数据用于校准两级GHR模型。传感器位置周围段的后端崩溃率在四年内使用存档的崩溃数据估算。后端崩溃率与拥挤状态的密度破坏点的反应时间下降相关。线性形式模型在R平方，标准误差和同义性方面提供了最佳拟合度。这些结果激发了后续研究，将宏观衍生的反应时间纳入道路安全计划。更普遍地，该研究证明了不连续的宏观交通模型的有用应用。
This study explores the hypothesis that an analytically derived estimate of the required driver reaction time for asymptotic stability, based on the macroscopic Gazis, Herman, and Rothery (GHR) model, can serve as an effective indicator of the impact of traffic oscillations on rear-end crashes. If separate GHR models are fit discontinuously for the uncongested and congested regimes, the local drop in required reaction time between the two regimes can also be estimated. This study evaluates the relationship between freeway rear-end crash rates and this drop in driver reaction time. Traffic data from 28 sensors collected over one year were used to calibrate the two-regime GHR model. Rear-end crash rates for the segments surrounding the sensor locations are estimated using archived crash data over four years. The rear-end crash rates exhibited a strong positive correlation with the reaction time drop at the density-breakpoint of the congested regime. A linear form model provided the best fit in terms of R-square, standard error, and homoscedasticity. These results motivate follow-on research to incorporate macroscopically derived reaction time in road-safety planning. More generally, the study demonstrates a useful application of a discontinuous macroscopic traffic model.
