论文标题
全面的调查和隔离有效地抑制了Covid-19的传播
Comprehensive Investigation and Isolation have Effectively Suppressed the Spread of COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
自2019年12月以来，Covid-19的爆发已造成了严重的寿命和全世界的经济损失，许多国家都被医疗资源的限制或缺乏目标治疗所捕获，因此，应优先考虑实施全身政策来阻止这一大流行。基于贝塔曲系病毒的传输机制和物理化学特性，我们构建了一个细粒的传输动力学模型（ICRD），以预测公众关注的关键信息，其中使用动力系数来量化围绕时间和强度的影响对围护策略的影响对封装策略对流行病的传播的影响。我们发现，易感人群的全面调查政策和可疑案件的隔离区在诊断案件急剧增加的阶段有助于减少伤亡。统计证据强烈表明，社会应该采取这种有力的公共卫生干预措施，以在初始阶段削减感染渠道，直到中断大流行为止。
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies to block this pandemic should be prioritized. Based on the transmission mechanisms and physicochemical properties of betacoronaviruses, we construct a fine-grained transmission dynamics model (ICRD) to forecast the crucial information of public concern, therein using dynamical coefficients to quantify the impact of the implement time and intensity of containment policies on the spread of epidemic. We find that the comprehensive investigation policy for susceptible population and the quarantine for suspected cases eminently contribute to reduce casualties during the phase of the dramatic increase of diagnosed cases. Statistic evidences strongly suggest that society should take such forceful public health interventions to cut the infection channels in the initial stage until the pandemic is interrupted.
