论文标题
互动热点的动力学-II
Dynamics of Interacting Hotspots - II
论文作者
论文摘要
在没有任何适当的临床解决方案的情况下，人类文明只剩下复杂的干预措施，以遏制COVID-19的传播。但是，估计干预措施的现有模型并未考虑到大流行的现实连通性。我们概括了早期的相互作用热点模型，以测试由多个EpCentres组成的模型状态中的各种干预可能性。我们还分析了当热点在空间相关的情况下，并且相互作用仅限于与最近的邻居交流的情况。我们表明，感染传播中的异质性仅取决于遏制的方案及其强度。我们探索许多这样的情况并讨论可能性。
In the absence of any proper clinical solution, human civilization is only left with sophisticated intervention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, the existing models to estimate the intervention does not take into account the realistic connectivity of the epicentres of the pandemic. We generalise our earlier model of interacting hotspots to test various possibilities of intervention in a model state consisting of multiple epicentres. We also analyse situations when the hotspots are spatially correlated and the interaction is limited to population exchanges with the nearest neighbours. We show that the heterogeneity in the infection propagation is solely dependent on the protocol of the containment and its strength. We explore many such situations and discuss possibilities.
