论文标题
限制了表面辐射加热的可观察到的变化的温度变化和降水的全局变化
Constraining Global Changes in Temperature and Precipitation From Observable Changes in Surface Radiative Heating
论文作者
论文摘要
大气组成的变化改变了向下传播太阳能和大气长波辐射通量之间加热地球表面的大小和分区。这些变化是通过全球气候模型中的辐射转移代码计算得出的，并在表面观测网络上以高精度进行测量。辐射加热的变化表示全球表面温度和水文周期的变化。在这里，我们使用能量平衡模型开发一个概念框架，以表明水文循环的一阶变化主要与太阳辐射的变化有关，而表面温度的变化主要与大气长波辐射的变化有关。这些见解用于解释一系列现象，包括观察到的历史趋势，气候模型输出中的偏见以及气候变化投影中的模型间扩散。这些结果可能有助于确定子孙后代的气候模型。
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes in Global Climate Models, and measured with high precision at surface observation networks. Changes in radiative heating signify changes in the global surface temperature and hydrologic cycle. Here, we develop a conceptual framework using an Energy Balance Model to show that first order changes in the hydrologic cycle are mainly associated with changes in solar radiation, while that in surface temperature are mainly associated with changes in atmospheric longwave radiation. These insights are used to explain a range of phenomena including observed historical trends, biases in climate model output, and the inter-model spread in climate change projections. These results may help identify biases in future generations of climate models.
