论文标题

美国人口和发展的空间网络连通性;对疾病传播的影响

Spatial network connectivity of population and development in the USA; Implications for disease transmission

论文作者

Small, Christopher, MacDonald, Andrew J., Sousa, Daniel

论文摘要

ZIPFS法律指出,城市人口的级别尺寸分布遵循一项权力法,指数为-1。普遍权力法的主张是有争议的,因为线性和坡度似乎随着时间的流逝和国家之间的变化而有所不同。我们将人口普查和夜光亮度与连续美国的人口密度和发展强度的代理进行了比较。将人口密度和发展强度视为连续数量,可以根据空间连通性来定义空间网络。空间网络组件(连接节点的子集)的产生分布随连通性程度而变化,但在各种网络大小上保持一致的缩放。在大陆尺度上,从人口密度和夜光亮度获得的空间网络排名分布非常适合,供应定律,指数接近-1,对于广泛的密度和亮度阈值。但是,最大的组成部分(10,000-100,000平方公里)远大于单个城市,并代表了城市,郊区和郊区发展的空间连续集团。预测县级级别的SARS-COV-2案件为美国的空间网络进行了人口和发展的空间网络,因此该流行病的时空演化可以被量化,因为在各种连通性的网络中的传播中的传播都会显示出较大的网络组成部分的较大型号的较大数量,从而在较大的网络中逐渐增加的案例中的慢速增加了一个较大的构图,从而逐渐增加。

Zipfs Law states that rank-size distributions of city populations follow a power law with an exponent of -1. The assertion of a universal power law is controversial because the linearity and slope appear to vary over time and among countries. We compare census enumerations and night light luminance as proxies for population density and intensity of development in the contiguous United States. Treating population density and development intensity as continuous quantities allows for the definition of spatial networks based on the level of spatial connectivity. The resulting distributions of spatial network components (subsets of connected nodes) vary with degree of connectivity, but maintain consistent scaling over a wide range of network sizes. At continental scales, spatial network rank-size distributions obtained from both population density and night light brightness are well-fit by power laws with exponents near -1 for a wide range of density and luminance thresholds. However, the largest components (10,000 - 100,000 sq.km) are far larger than individual cities and represent spatially contiguous agglomerations of urban, suburban and periurban development. Projecting county-level numbers of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 for the US onto spatial networks of population and development allows the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic to be quantified as propagation within networks of varying connectivity.. The results show an abrupt transition from slow increases in confirmed cases in a small number of network components to rapid geographic dispersion to a larger number of components before mobility reductions occurred in March 2020.

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