论文标题
COVID-19的遏制工作减少和再生模式
Containment effort reduction and regrowth patterns of the Covid-19 spreading
论文作者
论文摘要
在所有国家，政治决定旨在实现几乎稳定的配置，每天由于Covid-19，每天有少数新的受感染者。当达到这种状况时，通常会减少遏制工作，以逐步重新开放社会生活和各个经济部门。但是，在这个新阶段，感染扩散重新启动和对再生的定量分析非常有用。我们讨论了一种宏观方法，该方法是在新阶段开始几天后的第一个锁定数据中基于收集的数据，概述了COVID-19的不同场景更长的时间。本文的目的是概念的演示：一个人采用简单的增长模型，考虑可用数据，并显示如何获得利差的未来趋势。该方法适用于时间依赖的承载能力，类似于生物学，经济学和人口动态的许多宏观增长法。分析了新加坡，法国，西班牙和意大利的说明性案例。
In all Countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a gradual reopening of the social life and of the various economical sectors. However, in this new phase, the infection spread restarts and a quantitative analysis of the regrowth is very useful. We discuss a macroscopic approach which, on the basis of the collected data in the first lockdown, after few days from the beginning of the new phase, outlines different scenarios of the Covid-19 diffusion for longer time. The purpose of this paper is a demonstration-of-concept: one takes simple growth models, considers the available data and shows how the future trend of the spread can be obtained. The method applies a time dependent carrying capacity, analogously to many macroscopic growth laws in biology, economics and population dynamics. The illustrative cases of Singapore, France, Spain and Italy are analyzed.
