论文标题
精制室模型，无症状载体和Covid-19
Refined compartmental models, asymptomatic carriers and COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的是分析一些专门设计的隔室模型，该模型是为了建模疾病的传播的传播，其传播具有与Covid-19的特征相同的特征。本文的主要贡献是：（1）严格发现爆发只有一个峰的足够条件，即没有第二波的感染浪潮； （2）当未满足这种情况时，研究其他感染波的形成； （3）使用数值模拟分析不同的无症状载体可以具有的不同作用。我们还认为，将人口分为非相互作用群体会导致传输速率有效降低。与任何隔间模型一样，本文的目的是提供定性的理解，而不是确切的定量预测。
The goal of this article is to analyze some compartmental models specially designed to model the spread of a disease whose transmission has the same features as COVID-19. The major contributions of this article are: (1) Rigorously find sufficient conditions for the outbreak to only have one peak, i.e. for no second wave of infection to form; (2) Investigate the formation of other waves of infection when such conditions are not met; (3) Use numerical simulations to analyze the different roles asymptomatic carriers can have. We also argue that dividing the population into non-interacting groups leads to an effective reduction of the transmission rates. As in any compartmental model, the goal of this article is to provide qualitative understanding rather than exact quantitative predictions.
