论文标题
在ICU约束下的最佳流行抑制
Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint
论文作者
论文摘要
我们应该限制经济和社会活动多少，以确保流行病期间的医疗保健系统不会淹没？我们研究一个环境，在抑制成本高昂（例如限制经济互动）的情况下，ICU资源受到限制。我们提供了一个完全分析的解决方案，我们表明，“弯曲曲线平坦”的共同智慧是次优的抑制措施以保持整个流行病的蔓延。相反，最佳抑制是不连续的。流行病应在第一阶段不受监管，当ICU约束接近社会时，应迅速锁定（不连续）。在锁定法规应逐渐解除之后，保持感染常数的速度，从而尊重ICU资源，同时又不限制经济活动。在最后一个阶段，提出了调节。我们将此策略称为“填充盒子”。
How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical solution we show that the common wisdom of "flattening the curve", where suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal suppression is discontinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU constraint is approaching society should quickly lock down (a discontinuity). After the lockdown regulation should gradually be lifted, holding the rate of infected constant thus respecting the ICU resources while not unnecessarily limiting economic activity. In a final phase, regulation is lifted. We call this strategy "filling the box".
