论文标题
使用SEIR模型对阿根廷的Covid-19流行的数值模拟
A numerical simulation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Argentina using the SEIR model
论文作者
论文摘要
由新的冠状病毒引起的大流行已经在全球范围内传播，影响了阿根廷。我们实施了一个SEIR模型来分析布宜诺斯艾利斯和邻近城市的疾病进化。使用正式报告的伤亡人数对模型参数进行校准。由于无限解决方案尊重数据，因此我们显示不同的情况。在所有人中，繁殖率$ r_0 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $在锁定后降低，但随后增加了，可能是由于人口稠密的贫民窟的传染量增加。因此，必须通过采用控制策略来避免大量的传染性和死亡的人来扭转$ R_0 $的增长趋势。该模型提供了一个有效的程序来估计流行病的流行病参数（死亡率，传播概率，感染和孵育期）以及在流行病演变过程中监测控制措施。
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting Argentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in Buenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using the number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour the data, we show different cases. In all of them the reproduction ratio $R_0$ decreases after early lockdown, but then raises, probably due to an increase in contagion in highly populated slums. Therefore it is mandatory to reverse this growing trend in $R_0$ by applying control strategies to avoid a high number of infectious and dead individuals. The model provides an effective procedure to estimate epidemic parameters (fatality rate, transmission probability, infection and incubation periods) and monitor control measures during the epidemic evolution.
