论文标题
关于巴西总统政权的稳定性：统计分析
On the stability of the Brazilian presidential regime: a statistical analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
巴西的总统制度的特征是许多政党的存在，这些政党被当选为代表会议，并在立法联盟中团结起来，以组成多数。自1985年重新民主以来，巴西举行了8次直接总统大选，其中有两次弹imp的总统。在这项工作中，我们表征了总统制度的稳定性以及分析从1991年至2019年在代表会议厅进行的投票的破裂时期。我们首先衡量当事方和国会在投票中的凝聚力，量化国会议员之间的一致性，在此期间不可估计，在此期间不可占有一定的意义。立法时期。使用聚类算法，我们能够将观察到的这些两极分化的群体与反对政府和政府基础相关联。为了表征2016年发生的DILMA ROUSSEF的弹each，我们分析了国会议员与政府之间的协议如何随着时间的流逝而发展，并使用集群算法确定了所有属于总统多数联盟的政党，除了她的政党和另一个政党，另一个属于弹each的政党。我们的分析使我们能够确定稳定的总统时期和立法条款之间的一些差异。
Brazil's presidential system is characterized by the existence of many political parties that are elected for the Chamber of Deputies and unite in legislative coalitions to form a majority. Since the re-democratization in 1985, Brazil has had 8 direct presidential elections, among which there were two impeachments of the elected president. In this work we characterize the stability of the presidential regime and the periods of rupture analysing the votes that took place in the Chamber of Deputies from 1991 to 2019. We start by measuring the cohesion of the parties and the congress in the votes, quantifying the agreement between the votes of congressmen and observe that there is a stronger polarization among congressmen during legislative periods where there was no impeachment, referred to here as stable legislative periods. Using clustering algorithms, we are able to associate these polarized groups observed during the stable periods with the opposition to the government and government base. To characterize the impeachment of Dilma Roussef that happened in 2016 we analyze how the agreement between congressmen and the government evolved over time and identified, using cluster algorithms, that all the parties belonging to the majority coalition of the president, except her own party and another one, migrated to the opposition just before the impeachment. Our analyses allow us to identify some differences between stable presidential periods and Legislative terms with an impeachment.
