论文标题
灵活的随机条件持续时间模型
A Flexible Stochastic Conditional Duration Model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一种新的随机持续时间模型,用于资产市场的交易时间。我们认为,汇总看似相关的交易的广泛接受的规则误导了与无关交易之间的持续时间有关的推理:虽然同一第二次执行的任何两个交易可能都是相关的,但在典型样本中,所有此类交易都极不可能是极不可能的。通过对哪些交易在我们的模型中相关的不确定性,我们提高了无关交易之间持续时间分布的推断,尤其是接近零。我们在无关交易之间的持续时间内引入了归一化的条件分布,该分布既灵活又可以适合于向指数分布收缩,我们认为这是适当的一阶模型。得益于状态变量的高效绘制,后验模拟的数值效率比以前的研究高得多。在经验应用中,我们发现无关交易之间持续时间的条件危害功能远低于大多数研究发现的差异。我们声称这是因为我们避免了由确定性的商品交易规则和不合适的参数分布产生的统计文物。
We introduce a new stochastic duration model for transaction times in asset markets. We argue that widely accepted rules for aggregating seemingly related trades mislead inference pertaining to durations between unrelated trades: while any two trades executed in the same second are probably related, it is extremely unlikely that all such pairs of trades are, in a typical sample. By placing uncertainty about which trades are related within our model, we improve inference for the distribution of durations between unrelated trades, especially near zero. We introduce a normalized conditional distribution for durations between unrelated trades that is both flexible and amenable to shrinkage towards an exponential distribution, which we argue is an appropriate first-order model. Thanks to highly efficient draws of state variables, numerical efficiency of posterior simulation is much higher than in previous studies. In an empirical application, we find that the conditional hazard function for durations between unrelated trades varies much less than what most studies find. We claim that this is because we avoid statistical artifacts that arise from deterministic trade-aggregation rules and unsuitable parametric distributions.