论文标题
阿根廷2013 - 2019年通货膨胀的宏观经济因素
Macroeconomic factors for inflation in Argentine 2013-2019
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的是研究因子分析的使用，以确定相关宏观经济变量在推动通货膨胀方面的作用。通常使用主要成分构建的少量因素来总结通常影响通货膨胀的宏观经济预测因素。这使我们能够确定货币增长，通货膨胀期望和汇率在推动通货膨胀中的关键作用。然后，我们使用这些因素来构建计量经济学模型来预测通货膨胀。具体而言，我们使用单变量和多变量模型，例如经典自回归，因子模型和Favar模型。预测的结果表明，包含更多经济信息的模型优于基准。此外，为了检查主要因素中的冲击的短期动力学动力学，还进行了因果测试和冲动反应。
The aim of this paper is to investigate the use of the Factor Analysis in order to identify the role of the relevant macroeconomic variables in driving the inflation. The Macroeconomic predictors that usually affect the inflation are summarized using a small number of factors constructed by the principal components. This allows us to identify the crucial role of money growth, inflation expectation and exchange rate in driving the inflation. Then we use this factors to build econometric models to forecast inflation. Specifically, we use univariate and multivariate models such as classical autoregressive, Factor models and FAVAR models. Results of forecasting suggest that models which incorporate more economic information outperform the benchmark. Furthermore, causality test and impulse response are performed in order to examine the short-run dynamics of inflation to shocks in the principal factors.
