论文标题
我们可以从斯洛文尼亚的COVID-19-19的流行病的时间演变中学到什么？
What Can We Learn from the Time Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in Slovenia?
论文作者
论文摘要
最近的工作（DOI 10.1101/2020.05.05.06.20093310）表明，将较大的人群暂时拆分为较小的组可以有效减轻SARS-COV-2病毒的传播。此后不久，2020年5月15日，两百万斯洛文尼亚是第一个欧洲国家，宣布在国家边界内的Covid-19结束，从这个角度来看，这一事实可能是相关的。在这种演变的推动下，我们在本文中研究了斯洛文尼亚冠状病毒病例的时间动力学，重点是各种有效的各种遏制措施的作用以减少COVID-19的数量。值得注意的是，目前的分析不依赖任何投机性理论假设。它仅基于原始流行病学数据。在此处呈现的结果中，最重要的可能是发现，尽管强烈的宵禁和旅行限制使感染率Kappa相对于不受限制的状态使Kappa降低了四倍，但与社交和经济差异相比，他们只能将\ k {appa} valuue提高约15％，而持续的规则（正当耐心地）是耐心等待的。对于行为和社会科学而言，我们对时间依赖性的分析\ k {appa} = \ k {appa}（t）可能会揭示人口的有趣自我保护本能，甚至在官方锁定执法之前就变得明显了。
A recent work (DOI 10.1101/2020.05.06.20093310) indicated that temporarily splitting larger populations into smaller groups can efficiently mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus. The fact that, soon afterwards, on May 15, 2020, the two million people Slovenia was the first European country proclaiming the end of COVID-19 epidemic within national borders may be relevant from this perspective. Motivated by this evolution, in this paper we investigate the time dynamics of coronavirus cases in Slovenia with emphasis on how efficient various containment measures act to diminish the number of COVID-19 infections. Noteworthily, the present analysis does not rely on any speculative theoretical assumption; it is solely based on raw epidemiological data. Out of the results presented here, the most important one is perhaps the finding that, while imposing drastic curfews and travel restrictions reduce the infection rate kappa by a factor of four with respect to the unrestricted state, they only improve the \k{appa}-value by ~15 % as compared to the much bearable state of social and economical life wherein (justifiable) wearing face masks and social distancing rules are enforced/followed. Significantly for behavioral and social science, our analysis of the time dependence \k{appa} = \k{appa}(t) may reveal an interesting self-protection instinct of the population, which became manifest even before the official lockdown enforcement.
