论文标题
有效和自适应覆盖范围分类
Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage
论文作者
论文摘要
共形推理,交叉验证+和折刀+是固定方法,几乎可以与任何机器学习算法结合使用,以构建具有保证的边际覆盖范围的预测集。在本文中,我们开发了这些技术的专业版本,用于分类和无序的响应标签,除了提供边际覆盖范围外,它们还完全适应复杂的数据分布,从某种意义上说,它们在与其他方法相比相比的近似条件覆盖率方面表现出色。我们贡献的核心是一个新颖的合规分数,我们明确地证明了这对于分类问题具有强大的直观,但其基本原理可能更笼统。关于合成和真实数据的实验证明了我们理论保证的实际价值,以及所提出方法比现有替代方案的统计优势。
Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop specialized versions of these techniques for categorical and unordered response labels that, in addition to providing marginal coverage, are also fully adaptive to complex data distributions, in the sense that they perform favorably in terms of approximate conditional coverage compared to alternative methods. The heart of our contribution is a novel conformity score, which we explicitly demonstrate to be powerful and intuitive for classification problems, but whose underlying principle is potentially far more general. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the practical value of our theoretical guarantees, as well as the statistical advantages of the proposed methods over the existing alternatives.