论文标题

移民的国内经济影响

The domestic economic impacts of immigration

论文作者

Roodman, David

论文摘要

本文批判性地回顾了关于移民对富裕国家的就业和工资的影响的研究 - “土著人”包括以前的移民及其后代。在为非技术观众写的时,该论文涉及技术问题,并在附录中探讨了一个特别激烈的学术辩论。虽然可用的证据不是确定的,但它描绘了一致的图片。工业经济体通常可以迅速吸收移民,部分原因是资本是流动性和灵活性的,部分原因是移民是消费者和生产者。因此,在最坏的情况下,长期的平均影响可能为零。而且,长期可能会迅速出现,特别是如果投资者可以预测移民流入。可能,熟练的移民可以提高许多其他人的生产力和工资。在平均值上,存在分布效应。在低收入的“本地”工人中,失去最大的工人是那些最像新来者,成为移民本身,低技能,不那么被同化的人,并且有潜在的,无证件的人。但是,当地工人和早期的移民往往会受益于与他们不同的工人的到来,他们在生产中与他们竞争的补充更多。因此,熟练的移民可以抵消低技能移民对当地人和早期移民的影响。

This paper critically reviews the research on the impact of immigration on employment and wages of natives in wealthy countries--where "natives" includes previous immigrants and their descendants. While written for a non-technical audience, the paper engages with technical issues and probes one particularly intense scholarly debate in an appendix. While the available evidence is not definitive, it paints a consistent picture. Industrial economies can generally absorb migrants quickly, in part because capital is mobile and flexible, in part because immigrants are consumers as well as producers. Thus, long-term average impacts are probably zero at worst. And the long-term may come quickly, especially if migration inflows are predictable to investors. Possibly, skilled immigration boosts productivity and wages for many others. Around the averages, there are distributional effects. Among low-income "native" workers, the ones who stand to lose the most are those who most closely resemble new arrivals, in being immigrants themselves, being low-skill, being less assimilated, and, potentially, undocumented. But native workers and earlier immigrants tend to benefit from the arrival of workers different from them, who complement more than compete with them in production. Thus skilled immigration can offset the effects of low-skill immigration on natives and earlier immigrants.

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