论文标题
通过锁定政策来驯服流行病的传播
Taming the spread of an epidemics by lockdown policies
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究了一个决策者的问题，该决策者旨在驯服流行病的传播，同时最大程度地减少其相关的社会成本。我们模型的主要特征在于，疾病的传播速率是一个扩散的随机过程，可以通过昂贵的限制政策调整趋势。我们提供了完整的理论分析以及说明最佳锁定策略结构的数值实验。在我们的所有实验中，后者的特征是三个不同的时期：首先让流行病自由进化，然后进行剧烈驯服，最后应采用较少严格的遏制。此外，最佳的遏制策略是使产品“易生复制数X百分比”在某个日期之后严格低于一个临界水平之后保留，尽管在最后一个更轻松的锁定阶段，繁殖数的振动数在一个更轻松的阶段中旋转。最后，显示传输速率波动的增加被证明会导致最佳锁定政策的早期开始，该策略也会在较长时间内稀释。
We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly confinement policies. We provide a complete theoretical analysis, as well as numerical experiments illustrating the structure of the optimal lockdown policy. In all our experiments the latter is characterized by three distinct periods: the epidemic is first let freely evolve, then vigorously tamed, and finally a less stringent containment should be adopted. Moreover, the optimal containment policy is such that the product "reproduction number x percentage of susceptible" is kept after a certain date strictly below the critical level of one, although the reproduction number is let oscillate above one in the last more relaxed phase of lockdown. Finally, an increase in the fluctuations of the transmission rate is shown to give rise to an earlier beginning of the optimal lockdown policy, which is also diluted over a longer period of time.
