论文标题
Covid-19和印度：下一步是什么？
COVID-19 and India: What Next?
论文作者
论文摘要
该研究基于公共可用的COVID-19的数据进行预测建模，该期限为4月1日至2020年6月20日，与印度及其五个最感染的州有关：马哈拉施特拉邦，泰米尔纳德邦，德里，古吉拉特邦，古吉拉特邦和拉贾斯坦邦，使用易感性，感染，恢复，死亡（sird）模型。基本的繁殖编号R0是使用RSTUDIO软件包R0通过指数增长方法得出的。反映SIRD模型的微分方程已在Jupyter Notebook平台上使用Python 3.7.4解决。为了可视化，使用Python matplotlib 3.2.1软件包。该研究提供了有关峰值日期的见解，与印度及其五个州有关的峰值峰值数量以及与印度及其五个州有关的末期。政治领导力，卫生当局和行业多扬恩（Doyens）可以利用结果来进行政策计划和执行。
The study carries out predictive modeling based on publicly available COVID-19 data for the duration 01 April to 20 June 2020 pertaining to India and five of its most infected states: Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, Gujarat, and Rajasthan using susceptible, infected, recovered, and dead (SIRD) model. The basic reproduction number R0 is derived by exponential growth method using RStudio package R0. The differential equations reflecting SIRD model have been solved using Python 3.7.4 on Jupyter Notebook platform. For visualization, Python Matplotlib 3.2.1 package is used. The study offers insights on peak-date, peak number of COVID-19 infections, and end-date pertaining to India and five of its states. The results could be leveraged by political leadership, health authorities, and industry doyens for policy planning and execution.
