论文标题
日本共同199的发病率与死亡率与当地人口密度，温度和绝对湿度之间的相关性
Correlation between COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates in Japan and local population density, temperature and absolute humidity
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究分析了日本不同县的Covid-19大流行的发病率和死亡率。在每日最大确认的死亡和每日最大病例应分别超过4和10的限制下，包括14个县，并评估影响发病率和死亡率的辅助因子。特别是，评估了确认的死亡人数，不包括医院感染和疗养院患者的病例。在发病率和种群密度之间观察到了轻度的相关性（R2 = 0.394）。此外，还发现每个人口的老年人的百分比不可忽略。在天气参数中，发现在整个持续时间内平均的最高温度和绝对湿度与发病率和死亡率相关，不包括医院感染的病例。对于较高的温度和绝对湿度，观察到较低的发病率和死亡率。考虑这些因素的多变量分析表明，扩散，衰减和组合阶段的确定系数分别为0.708、0.785和0.615。这些发现对于未来大流行期间的干预计划可能很有用，包括潜在的第二次Covid-19爆发。
This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
