论文标题
简化模型放松锁定的时间
Simplified model on the timing of easing the lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
锁定程序已被证明成功地减轻了该病毒在这次19009年大流行中的传播，但它们也对经济产生了毁灭性的影响。我们使用经过依赖感染率的修改后的易感性感染恢复模型，以模拟在锁定下的感染如何扩散。通过一个简单的模型评估了由于劳动力和医疗费用损失而导致的经济成本。我们发现最好的策略，这意味着整个大流行过程中最小的经济成本是尽可能长时间地保持严格的锁定。
Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with time dependent infection rate to simulate how the infection is spread under lockdown. The economic cost due to the loss of workforce and incurred medical expenses is evaluated with a simple model. We find the best strategy, meaning the smallest economic cost for the entire course of the pandemic, is to keep the strict lockdown as long as possible.
