论文标题
对物理距离政策的流行反应及其对爆发风险的影响
Epidemic response to physical distancing policies and their impact on the outbreak risk
论文作者
论文摘要
我们介绍了一个理论框架，该框架突出了物理距离变量（例如人类流动性和物理接近性）对流行病进化以及至关重要的繁殖数的影响。特别是，为了应对冠状病毒病（Covid-19）大流行，各国引入了各种水平的“锁定”，以减少新感染的数量。具体而言，我们对续签方程描述的感染年龄结构化模型使用碰撞方法，用于流行的时间均匀演变。结果，我们展示了锁定政策的各种贡献，即物理接近和人类流动性，降低了SARS-COV-2的影响并减轻疾病复兴的风险。我们使用两个不同数据存储库的物理距离进行现实世界中的数据检查我们的理论框架，从而获得一致的结果。最后，我们提出了一个有效繁殖数字的方程式，该方程考虑了人们之间的互动类型，这可能有助于决策者改善遥远的组织结构。
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in response to the coronavirus disease (CoViD-19) pandemic, countries have introduced various levels of 'lockdown' to reduce the number of new infections. Specifically we use a collisional approach to an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation for the time homogeneous evolution of epidemics. As a result, we show how various contributions of the lockdown policies, namely physical proximity and human mobility, reduce the impact of SARS-CoV-2 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We check our theoretical framework using real-world data on physical distancing with two different data repositories, obtaining consistent results. Finally, we propose an equation for the effective reproduction number which takes into account types of interactions among people, which may help policy makers to improve remote-working organizational structure.
