论文标题
Shir模型：现实适用于Covid-19案例号
The SHIR Model: Realistic Fits to COVID-19 Case Numbers
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑了大流行增长的全球（位置独立）模型，该模型概括了SIR模型，以适应Covid-19的大流行的重要特征，尤其是实施大流行量度。该“ SHIR”模型应用于Covid-19数据，并显示出一种简单，可拖延的形式主义的希望，而很少有参数可用于模拟大流行病例数。作为一个例子，我们表明，来自15个中欧和西欧国家的每天新Covid-19案例的平均时间依赖性与模型的分析，无参数的预测非常吻合
We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is applied to COVID-19 data, and shows promise as a simple, tractable formalism with few parameters that can be used to model pandemic case numbers. As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19 cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model
