论文标题

衡量美国货币政策在Covid-19衰退期间的有效性

Measuring the Effectiveness of US Monetary Policy during the COVID-19 Recession

论文作者

Feldkircher, Martin, Huber, Florian, Pfarrhofer, Michael

论文摘要

始于2020年3月的Covid-19衰退导致全球经济活动前所未有的下降。为了抗击这一经济衰退,中央银行的决策者从事扩张性货币政策。本文询问美国美联储(美联储)采取的措施是否有效地提高了实际活动和平静的金融市场。为了在高频下测量这些效果,我们提出了一种新型的混合频率矢量自回旋(MF-VAR)模型。该模型允许我们将每周和每月的信息组合在统一框架中。我们的模型结合了一组宏观经济总计,例如工业生产,失业率和通货膨胀,以及来自金融市场的高频信息,例如股票价格,利率价差以及有关美联储资产负债表量的每周信息。后一组高频时间序列用于动态插值每月时间序列,以获得每周的宏观经济措施。我们使用此设置在没有金钱刺激的情况下模拟反事实。结果表明,与无政策基准的情况相比,货币扩张导致了更高的产出增长和股票市场回报,更有利的长期融资条件以及美元折旧。

The COVID-19 recession that started in March 2020 led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity across the globe. To fight this recession, policy makers in central banks engaged in expansionary monetary policy. This paper asks whether the measures adopted by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have been effective in boosting real activity and calming financial markets. To measure these effects at high frequencies, we propose a novel mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model. This model allows us to combine weekly and monthly information within an unified framework. Our model combines a set of macroeconomic aggregates such as industrial production, unemployment rates and inflation with high frequency information from financial markets such as stock prices, interest rate spreads and weekly information on the Feds balance sheet size. The latter set of high frequency time series is used to dynamically interpolate the monthly time series to obtain weekly macroeconomic measures. We use this setup to simulate counterfactuals in absence of monetary stimulus. The results show that the monetary expansion caused higher output growth and stock market returns, more favorable long-term financing conditions and a depreciation of the US dollar compared to a no-policy benchmark scenario.

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