论文标题
从贝叶斯的角度来看，Covid-19的累积负担
Cumulated burden of Covid-19 in Spain from a Bayesian perspective
论文作者
论文摘要
这项工作的主要目的是估计自主社区01-31-2020 / 06-01-2020时期，西班牙在西班牙的实际病例数量。根据这些估计，这项工作使我们能够考虑到未报告的病例，准确地重新估计西班牙疾病的致命性。最近在文献中提出的层次结构贝叶斯模型已改编，以模拟西班牙的COVID-19案例的实际数量。这项工作的结果表明，在考虑的时期，在西班牙的Covid-19的实际负担远高于公共卫生系统注册的数据。具体而言，该模型估计表明，直到2020年6月1日，西班牙有2,425,930例Covid -19案例，其特征与报告的特征相似（95 \％可信度间隔：2,148,261-261-2,813,864），实际上仅注册了518,6664。考虑到从第二波的西班牙血清阳性研究获得的结果，该研究估计在所考虑的时间段内在西班牙产生了2,350,324例Covid-19病例，可以看出该模型提供的估计值相当不错。这项工作清楚地表明了拥有高质量数据以在处理大流行的关键背景下优化决策的关键重要性。
The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of Covid-19 in Spain in the period 01-31-2020 / 06-01-2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality of the disease in Spain, taking into account unreported cases. A hierarchical Bayesian model recently proposed in the literature has been adapted to model the actual number of Covid-19 cases in Spain. The results of this work show that the real load of Covid-19 in Spain in the period considered is well above the data registered by the public health system. Specifically, the model estimates show that, cumulatively until June 1st, 2020, there were 2,425,930 cases of Covid-19 in Spain with characteristics similar to those reported (95\% credibility interval: 2,148,261 - 2,813,864), from which were actually registered only 518,664. Considering the results obtained from the second wave of the Spanish seroprevalence study, which estimates 2,350,324 cases of Covid-19 produced in Spain, in the period of time considered, it can be seen that the estimates provided by the model are quite good. This work clearly shows the key importance of having good quality data to optimize decision-making in the critical context of dealing with a pandemic.
