论文标题
用于估计Covid-19的空气传播风险的数学框架，并应用面对面具的使用和社交距离
A Mathematical Framework for Estimating Risk of Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 with Application to Face Mask Use and Social Distancing
论文作者
论文摘要
提出了一种用于估计呼吸道感染（例如Covid-19）风险传播风险的数学模型。该模型采用流体动力学的基本概念，并结合了此类疾病的空气传播涉及的已知因素范围。模型的数学形式的简单性是按设计进行的，因此它不仅可以作为跨学科界限的科学探究的共同基础，而且在科学和学术界以外的广泛受众可以理解。该模型的警告和局限性将详细讨论。该模型用于评估由各种织物制成的面部覆盖物提供的防护剂。通过将模型与规范流中标量分散的可用数据耦合，可以量化与宿主和易感性之间的物理距离增加相关的传播风险的降低。最后，还评估了宿主的体育锻炼水平（或运动强度）和易受增强传播风险的影响的影响。
A mathematical model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of a respiratory infection such as COVID-19, is presented. The model employs basic concepts from fluid dynamics and incorporates the known scope of factors involved in the airborne transmission of such diseases. Simplicity in the mathematical form of the model is by design, so that it can serve not only as a common basis for scientific inquiry across disciplinary boundaries, but also be understandable by a broad audience outside science and academia. The caveats and limitations of the model are discussed in detail. The model is used to assess the protection from transmission afforded by face coverings made from a variety of fabrics. The reduction in transmission risk associated with increased physical distance between the host and susceptible is also quantified by coupling the model with available data on scalar dispersion in canonical flows. Finally, the effect of the level of physical activity (or exercise intensity) of the host and the susceptible in enhancing transmission risk, is also assessed.
