论文标题
通往路线图的路线图：我们怎么能告诉AGI何时是“曼哈顿项目”？
Roadmap to a Roadmap: How Could We Tell When AGI is a 'Manhattan Project' Away?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文认为，在对AGI的研究的某个时刻，这个问题可能会得到充分的理论，即存在明确的路线图来实现它，因此类似曼哈顿项目的努力可以大大缩短完成的时间。如果州行为者认为这一门槛已经越过，那么他们对开放和国际合作的激励措施可能会突然发生变化，对AI风险和国际AI治理政权的稳定产生了严重的影响。该论文的特征是这种“跑道”时期将与AI研究的上一个阶段在质上有何不同，因此提出了一项研究计划，旨在评估AI领域与这样的阈值的距离，也就是说，它要求将路线图与路线图制定。”
This paper argues that at a certain point in research toward AGI, the problem may become well-enough theorized that a clear roadmap exists for achieving it, such that a Manhattan Project-like effort could greatly shorten the time to completion. If state actors perceive that this threshold has been crossed, their incentives around openness and international cooperation may shift rather suddenly, with serious implications for AI risks and the stability of international AI governance regimes. The paper characterizes how such a 'runway' period would be qualitatively different from preceding stages of AI research, and accordingly proposes a research program aimed at assessing how close the field of AI is to such a threshold - that is, it calls for the formulation of a 'roadmap to the roadmap.'
