论文标题

使用多代理系统的农业政策建议分析

Analysis of Agricultural Policy Recommendations using Multi-Agent Systems

论文作者

Guthula, Satyandra, Simon, Sunil, Karnick, Harish

论文摘要

尽管农业是印度一半以上人口的主要生计的主要来源,但印度农业部门实施了几项社会经济政策,而没有足够关注政策的可能结果。在农民遭受的巨大困扰中,几项研究记录了一些政策的负面影响,并定期在媒体上报告。在本文中,我们将印度特定的特定陷入困境的农业子系统建模为多机构系统,并使用它来分析某些政策的影响。理想情况下,我们应该能够对整个系统进行建模,包括来自其他系统的所有外部依赖关系 - 例如,劳动或水的可用性可能取决于其他就业来源,水权等的来源 - 但是出于我们的目的,我们从不考虑此类外部效果的相当基本的模型开始。据我们所知,没有可用的模型来考虑在印度背景下水位,信息的可用性和市场模拟等因素。因此,我们将各种实体插入了模型,以使其足够接近观察到的现实,至少在印度的某些选定地区。我们评估了一些政策选择,以了解一旦实施此类政策,可能会发生的变化。然后,我们根据模拟的结果推荐了一些策略。

Despite agriculture being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India's population, several socio-economic policies are implemented in the Indian agricultural sector without paying enough attention to the possible outcomes of the policies. The negative impact of some policies can be seen in the huge distress suffered by farmers as documented by several studies and reported in the media on a regular basis. In this paper, we model a specific troubled agricultural sub-system in India as a Multi-Agent System and use it to analyse the impact of some policies. Ideally, we should be able to model the entire system, including all the external dependencies from other systems - for example availability of labour or water may depend on other sources of employment, water rights and so on - but for our purpose, we start with a fairly basic model not taking into account such external effects. As per our knowledge there are no available models which considers factors like water levels, availability of information and market simulation in the Indian context. So, we plugged in various entities into the model to make it sufficiently close to observed realities, at least in some selected regions of India. We evaluate some policy options to get an understanding of changes that may happen once such policies are implemented. Then we recommended some policies based on the result of the simulation.

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