论文标题
罗马帝国的权力法：生存分析
Power laws in the Roman Empire: a survival analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
罗马帝国塑造了西方文明，许多罗马原则在现代机构中体现出来。尽管其政治机构证明既有韧性又适应能力，使其能够融入多样化的人群，但帝国遭受了许多内部冲突的困扰。确实，大多数皇帝因暗杀，自杀或战斗而暴力死亡。这些内部冲突在可以通过统计分析确定的时间长度的时间内产生了模式。在本文中，我们通过使用生存数据分析的统计工具来研究与罗马皇帝统治相关的基本模式。我们考虑了所有175位罗马皇帝，并提出了一个具有变化点的新幂律模型，以预测罗马皇帝的暴力死亡。该模型包含在审查和长期幸存者的存在下的数据，比以前的模型提供了更准确的预测。我们的结果表明，在天然和人工系统的其他数据类型中验证的生存数据也可以发生，从而增强了电力法分布的无处不在。我们方法的一般性不仅在其他古老的文明中，而且在工程和医学领域的应用中进一步相关的研究铺平了道路。
The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire suffered from many internal conflicts. Indeed, most emperors died violently, from assassination, suicide, or in battle. These internal conflicts produced patterns in the length of time that can be identified by statistical analysis. In this paper, we study the underlying patterns associated with the reign of the Roman emperors by using statistical tools of survival data analysis. We consider all the 175 Roman emperors and propose a new power-law model with change points to predict the time-to-violent-death of the Roman emperors. This model encompasses data in the presence of censoring and long-term survivors, providing more accurate predictions than previous models. Our results show that power-law distributions can also occur in survival data, as verified in other data types from natural and artificial systems, reinforcing the ubiquity of power law distributions. The generality of our approach paves the way to further related investigations not only in other ancient civilizations but also in applications in engineering and medicine.
