论文标题
影响力分析领域:在太空天气预测中对数据同化的影响
Domain of Influence analysis: implications for Data Assimilation in space weather forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳能活动范围从背景太阳风到高能冠状质量弹出(CME),是行星际空间和地面空间环境中条件的主要驱动力,称为太空天气。更好地理解日落的连接具有巨大的潜力,可以通过经济和社会利益来减轻空间天气的影响。有效的太空天气预报依赖于数据和模型。在本文中,我们讨论了一些最常用的太空天气模型,并提出了适合用于数据收集的位置,以实现空间天气。 We report on the application of \textit{Representer analysis (RA)} and \textit{Domain of Influence (DOI) analysis} to three models simulating different stages of the Sun-Earth connection: the OpenGGCM and Tsyganenko models, focusing on solar wind - magnetosphere interaction, and the PLUTO model, used to simulate CME propagation in interplanetary space.出于多种原因,我们的分析出于太空天气而有希望。首先,我们获得有关观察点最有用位置的定量信息,例如太阳风监测器。例如,我们发现DOI的绝对值在磁层等离子体表中极低。由于对该特定子系统的了解对于太空天气至关重要,因此对该地区的监测增强将是最有益的。其次,我们能够更好地表征模型。尽管当前的分析侧重于空间相关性,但我们发现与时间相关的模型相比,时间独立的模型对数据同化活动的有用不大。第三,我们迈出了朝着雄心勃勃的目标迈出的雄心勃勃的目标,即确定用于建模地球层中CME传播的最相关的Heliospher参数,它们的到达时间以及它们在地球上的地理位置。
Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better understanding of the Sun-Earth connection carries enormous potential to mitigate negative space weather effects with economic and social benefits. Effective space weather forecasting relies on data and models. In this paper, we discuss some of the most used space weather models, and propose suitable locations for data gathering with space weather purposes. We report on the application of \textit{Representer analysis (RA)} and \textit{Domain of Influence (DOI) analysis} to three models simulating different stages of the Sun-Earth connection: the OpenGGCM and Tsyganenko models, focusing on solar wind - magnetosphere interaction, and the PLUTO model, used to simulate CME propagation in interplanetary space. Our analysis is promising for space weather purposes for several reasons. First, we obtain quantitative information about the most useful locations of observation points, such as solar wind monitors. For example, we find that the absolute values of the DOI are extremely low in the magnetospheric plasma sheet. Since knowledge of that particular sub-system is crucial for space weather, enhanced monitoring of the region would be most beneficial. Second, we are able to better characterize the models. Although the current analysis focuses on spatial rather than temporal correlations, we find that time-independent models are less useful for Data Assimilation activities than time-dependent models. Third, we take the first steps towards the ambitious goal of identifying the most relevant heliospheric parameters for modelling CME propagation in the heliosphere, their arrival time, and their geoeffectiveness at Earth.