论文标题
多层次回归，并在2020年白俄罗斯总统大选的国家一级Viber/Street民意调查后进行多级回归
Multilevel regression with poststratification for the national level Viber/Street poll on the 2020 presidential election in Belarus
论文作者
论文摘要
白俄罗斯禁止独立的社会学民意测验。在没有合理的科学严谨的情况下进行的在线民意调查不会产生代表性的结果。然而，在白俄罗斯内部和外部，获得所有候选人评级的精确估计非常重要。这些评级可以作为选举结果的可靠代理。我们根据通过Viber和白俄罗斯街道收集的数据组合进行独立民意调查。 Viber和街道数据样本分别由近45000和1150个独特的观测值组成。建立了随着后期化的贝叶斯回归，以估计候选人的评级，并为整个焦点亚组中的人群和各个重点群体的提前投票率评级。我们表明，官方宣布的选举结果和早期投票率都是极不可能的。 Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya的概率至少为95％，其评级在75％至80％之间，而Aliaksandr Lukashenka的评级在13％至18％和早期投票率之间，该方法的预测率在9％至13％中参加了参加选举的人的9％至13％。这些结果与正式宣布的结果相矛盾，分别为10.12％，80.11％和49.54％，甚至超出了我们模型预测的99.9％的可靠间隔。唯一的边际群体是，卢卡申卡（Lukashenka）评级99.9％的上限的上限超过50％，是60岁以上的人和没有受过教育的人。对于包括农村居民在内的所有其他边际亚组，甚至卢卡申卡的可靠间隔的上限也远低于50％。整个人口也是如此。因此，在至少99.9％的卢卡申卡（Lukashenka）的概率上，没有足够的选举支持来赢得2020年白俄罗斯总统大选。
Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online polls performed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results. Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtain precise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings could function as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct an independent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber and on the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist of almost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressions with poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates and rates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within various focus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of the election and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of at least 95%, Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya's rating lies between 75% and 80%, whereas Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13% and 18% and early voting rate predicted by the method ranges from 9% to 13% of those who took part in the election. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are 10.12%, 80.11%, and 49.54% respectively and lie far outside even the 99.9% credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of people where the upper bounds of the 99.9% credible intervals of the rating of Lukashenka are above 50% are people older than 60 and uneducated people. For all other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper bounds of 99.9% credible intervals for Lukashenka are far below 50%. The same is true for the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9% Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020 presidential election in Belarus.
