论文标题
社会影响在澳大利亚房地产中的影响：通过基于空间代理的模型进行市场预测
The impact of social influence in Australian real-estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model
论文作者
论文摘要
住房市场本质上是空间的，但是许多现有模型无法捕获这个空间维度。在这里，我们介绍了一种基于图的新方法，用于将空间组件纳入基于大规模的城市住房代理（ABM）中。该模型明确捕获了影响代理商决策行为的几个社会和经济因素（例如，害怕错过，其趋势遵循能力以及其子市场外展的力量），并以空间术语来解释这些因素。提出的模型通过大悉尼地区的住房市场数据进行了校准和验证。 ABM模拟结果不仅包括对整个市场的预测，而且还包括个人买卖决定所引起的悉尼地方政府地区的特定区域预测。此外，模拟结果阐明了子市场中的代理人的偏好，强调了代理行为的差异，例如，首次购房者和投资者之间以及本地和海外投资者之间的差异。
Housing markets are inherently spatial, yet many existing models fail to capture this spatial dimension. Here we introduce a new graph-based approach for incorporating a spatial component in a large-scale urban housing agent-based model (ABM). The model explicitly captures several social and economic factors that influence the agents' decision-making behaviour (such as fear of missing out, their trend following aptitude, and the strength of their submarket outreach), and interprets these factors in spatial terms. The proposed model is calibrated and validated with the housing market data for the Greater Sydney region. The ABM simulation results not only include predictions for the overall market, but also produce area-specific forecasting at the level of local government areas within Sydney as arising from individual buy and sell decisions. In addition, the simulation results elucidate agent preferences in submarkets, highlighting differences in agent behaviour, for example, between first-time home buyers and investors, and between both local and overseas investors.
