论文标题
太阳周期的预测25
Prediction of Solar Cycle 25
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳能周期的预测是太阳能物理学的重要目标，因为它是我们对太阳理解的试金石，也是由于其对太空遥远文明的社会价值。任务很困难，进步很慢。 Schatten等。 （1978）表明，太阳最小值的太阳极性区域中磁场的幅度可以作为以下太阳周期的演化和振幅的前体。从那时起，这个想法一直是对最近四个周期的大小的成功预测的基础，尤其是出乎意料的太阳周期24（“ 100年来最弱”）。自1970年代以来就可以使用极性磁场的直接测量值，我们刚刚在太阳周期25之前通过了太阳能，因此现在可以对极地前体的方法进行进一步的测试。新周期25的预测尺寸为128 $ \ pm $ 10（在新的Sunspot Number 2版本中），略大于上一个周期。
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and progress is slow. Schatten et al. (1978) suggested that the magnitude of the magnetic field in the polar regions of the sun near solar minimum could serve as a precursor for the evolution and amplitude of the following solar cycle. Since then, this idea has been the foundation of somewhat successful predictions of the size of the last four cycles, especially of the unexpectedly weak solar cycle 24 ("the weakest in 100 years"). Direct measurements of the polar magnetic fields are available since the 1970s and we have just passed the solar minimum prior to solar cycle 25, so a further test of the polar field precursor method is now possible. The predicted size of the new cycle 25 is 128$\pm$10 (on the new sunspot number version 2 scale), slightly larger than the previous cycle.
