论文标题
每周时间序列预测的准确且完全自动的集合模型
An Accurate and Fully-Automated Ensemble Model for Weekly Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
如今,许多企业和行业都需要每周时间序列的准确预测。但是,预测文献目前尚未提供专门用于此任务的易于使用,自动,可重复和准确的方法。我们在此领域中提出了一种预测方法,以填补这一空白,利用最新的预测技术,例如预测组合,元学习和全球建模。我们考虑不同的元学习架构,算法和基本模型池。基于所有考虑的模型变体,我们建议将堆叠方法与LASSO回归一起使用,从而最佳地结合了四个基本模型的预测:全球复发性神经网络模型(RNN),Theta,Theta,Trigenonometric Box-Cox Arma趋势季节性季节性(TBAT)和Dynamic Harmonic Reclission Arima(DHR-ARIMA),如七个范围(DHR-ARIMA),并显示整体范围的范围。指标。我们提出的方法还始终优于一组基准和最先进的每周预测模型,其统计学意义。对于所有基准和所有原始竞争参与者的M4每周数据集,我们的方法就平均SMAPE而言可以产生最准确的预测。
Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task. We propose a forecasting method in this domain to fill this gap, leveraging state-of-the-art forecasting techniques, such as forecast combination, meta-learning, and global modelling. We consider different meta-learning architectures, algorithms, and base model pools. Based on all considered model variants, we propose to use a stacking approach with lasso regression which optimally combines the forecasts of four base models: a global Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN), Theta, Trigonometric Box-Cox ARMA Trend Seasonal (TBATS) and Dynamic Harmonic Regression ARIMA (DHR-ARIMA), as it shows the overall best performance across seven experimental weekly datasets on four evaluation metrics. Our proposed method also consistently outperforms a set of benchmarks and state-of-the-art weekly forecasting models by a considerable margin with statistical significance. Our method can produce the most accurate forecasts, in terms of mean sMAPE, for the M4 weekly dataset among all benchmarks and all original competition participants.